Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.374267 2.517634 2.674026 2.859100 3.074643 3.321088 3.629380
2025-08-03 2.228764 2.405798 2.607071 2.857182 3.166411 3.546524 4.068060
2025-08-10 2.087284 2.273953 2.490858 2.767714 3.121963 3.577029 4.240464
2025-08-17 2.009219 2.206022 2.439005 2.743450 3.145294 3.683413 4.517074
2025-08-24 1.947927 2.151662 2.396393 2.722242 3.163448 3.775574 4.777234
2025-08-31 1.898075 2.106826 2.360573 2.703711 3.178466 3.857842 5.026903
2025-09-07 1.870684 2.086935 2.353077 2.718953 3.237167 4.004870 5.406676
2025-09-14 1.801886 2.011893 2.270893 2.627954 3.135736 3.892592 5.289626
2025-09-21 1.770521 1.982374 2.245451 2.611512 3.139151 3.941949 5.480052
2025-09-28 1.728926 1.938171 2.198798 2.562947 3.091011 3.902008 5.483090
2025-10-05 1.730170 1.947894 2.221989 2.610601 3.186521 4.101932 6.009239
2025-10-12 1.742291 1.971239 2.263047 2.683963 3.324302 4.386731 6.807262
2025-10-19 1.723778 1.955015 2.251543 2.682962 3.348077 4.476741 7.180244
2025-10-26 1.707965 1.941443 2.242554 2.684202 3.373783 4.569877 7.585153
2025-11-02 1.665224 1.891437 2.182622 2.608553 3.270758 4.410866 7.234819
2025-11-09 1.645331 1.870899 2.162063 2.589662 3.258639 4.423033 7.382999
2025-11-16 1.627633 1.852678 2.143926 2.573251 3.248915 4.437253 7.535764
2025-11-23 1.611823 1.836459 2.127894 2.559017 3.241346 4.453466 7.693952
2025-11-30 1.607930 1.835583 2.132394 2.574618 3.282590 4.566507 8.187747
2025-12-07 1.570725 1.789920 2.074412 2.495511 3.162600 4.349632 7.536524
2025-12-14 1.558180 1.776771 2.060944 2.482569 3.153031 4.354203 7.635654
2025-12-21 1.535774 1.750200 2.028548 2.440645 3.093713 4.256554 7.383678
2025-12-28 1.544976 1.765526 2.053830 2.485018 3.179590 4.453465 8.157251